How Covid has affected China's local government debt
Professor Jean C. Oi (William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Stanford University; Director of Stanford China Programme, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), Stanford University; and Lee Shau Kee Director of Stanford Center at Peking University), will deliver a lecture on how Covid has affected China's local government debt. The lecture will be followed by a question and answer session.
Much of China’s remarkable growth has been fuelled by local government-issued debt that funded its massive infrastructure overhaul. Local governments successfully relied on land finance and issued bonds to borrow and grow, but now with the dramatic economic slowdown and the continuing Zero-Covid lockdowns the merry-go-round is seizing up. The collapse of the real estate sector during the Covid lockdowns created the perfect storm that is cratering local government finances.
In her talk, Professor Oi will explain China’s local government debt problem and examine the tools the Chinese government is deploying to manage this situation and maintain stability. She will pay special attention to local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) that borrow on behalf of local governments. These LGFVs have gone from being labelled dangerous grey rhinos before COVID, to being first responders called in to save land finance in the wake of the collapse of the real estate companies.
Jean C. Oi, a University of Michigan Ph.D. in political science, is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the Department of Political Science and a Senior Fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She directs the China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at FSI and is the founding Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University. In March 2022, she was elected Vice President and President-Elect of the Association for Asian Studies.
Professor Oi has published extensively on political economy and reform in China. Recent publications include Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China's Future, co-edited with Tom Fingar (2020), “Firms as Revenue Safety Net: Political Connections and Returns to the Chinese State”, co-authored (The China Quarterly 2022), and “China’s Local Government Debt: The Grand Bargain”, co-authored (The China Journal 2022). Her new research focuses on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
This is one of the events in the on-going China Forum Seminar series, hosted by the China Forum, Jesus College. The seminars, given by eminent speakers, cover a broad range of topics and disciplines.
Booking
This is a virtual seminar. Attendance is free. Advance booking is required by emailing: china-forum@jesus.cam.ac.uk. Priority will be given to members of Jesus College and the University of Cambridge.
